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FM response to Advance Estimates of GDP for 2012-13

Finance Ministry™s Response to Advance Estimates Released by the CSO; Ministry Keeping a Watch on the Situation, have taken and Will Continue to Take Appropriate Measures to Revive Growth; Hope to End the Year on a Better Note

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has released the Advance Estimates of GDP for 2012-13. These are only advance estimates, the actual figure for growth rate is yet to be released.

Based on these, it is observed that the growth of GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices (real GDP) for 2012-13 is placed at 5.0 per cent as against 6.2 per cent for 2011-12. At the sectoral level the growth rate is 1.8 per cent for Agriculture and Allied sectors, 3.1 per cent for Industry sector and 6.6 per cent for Services sector. (This growth was 3.6 per cent, 3.5 per cent and 8.2 per cent respectively for these sectors in 2011-12).The reduction in growth in Agriculture and Allied sectors has been on account of rainfall being lower than normal, particularly in the months of June-July. In the industry sector, growth has been lower mainly on account of a reduction in growth of manufacturing sector from 2.7 per cent in 2011-12 to 1.9 per cent in the current year.

However, as per practice, this projection is based on extrapolation of numbers till November 2012. Since then leading indicators have turned up, suggesting some hope that we will end the year on a better note. Also, sectors such as trade and transport, which are related to industry, would also tend to get revised upwards, if growth outcomes are better.

It may be recalled that the RBI, in its outlook released on January 28, 2013 projected a growth rate of 5.5 per cent. The CSO™s growth estimate, no doubt, is below what we i.e. the Finance Ministry had expected it to be. We are keeping a watch on the situation. We have taken and will continue to take appropriate measures to revive growth.

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